Category Archive : FTSE Analysis

Weekend 9th / 10th January 2016

Its been a very volatile week with the FTSE being dragged down with the global sell off following the huge falls in Chinese stocks and currency. Unfortunately my performance has been a little hit and miss, especially towards the end of the week as I was a little anxious, expecting the market to rebound.

The 4 hour chart below shows the extent of the decline and also provides a look at the bigger picture:

WE 09-10-012015

My intentions going into this week were to continue to trade with the trend, and that was the case at the start of the week. After reviewing my trades, however, it turns out that I placed a few risky counter trend trades which I may have done well to leave altogether. I also hesitated and missed taking positions off some key levels with the FTSE trading in the downward sloping channel as it was; case in point being that 6014 level on Friday.

We saw a recurring pattern with the FTSE this week (except for Friday) which was a sell off at the open, the market stabilising from about 11am till 1 to 2pm, recovering during the US session, and then finally selling off after market hours or overnight. Again, I failed to maximise my returns as I didn’t manage to exploit this recurring theme – I should have traded larger at the open and followed the initial direction of the market, and left the counter-trend trades for the afternoon session. Additionally, the trades that I did take with the trend were closed out for a profit, however, they could have netted larger returns had I held the trades longer till the end of the morning session.

WE 09-10-012015 H1

On the positive side, I finished the week in the ‘blue’ again and managed to hold onto the gains from earlier in the week. Just kicking myself that I failed to really smash it … Still more room for improvement.

Friday 8th January 2016 – Afternoon

Bit of an up and down day with the FTSE trading between 6010 and 5950 for most of the day. I managed to place a couple of trades off intraday support and resistance levels – the first with MACD divergence which was a loss (stopped out for 20pts), and the second, an inter-changing SR play, which netted a few points. Unfortunately I missed shorting the double top formation although I mentioned the 6014 level in my update this morning,

H026. FTSE FRI 08012015 PM

Friday 8th January 2016 – Morning

The FTSE managed to recover some ground overnight and this was reflected at the open as the FTSE slowly clawed its way back past the 6000 level. I think it may be one of those days where the market just keeps grinding up and possibly sells off towards the end of the day as traders close positions over the weekend given the current market climate. I’ve drawn a trendline on the 5minute chart which seems to be holding thus far, and may trade off that around key levels or any potential divergence patterns that develop. Another key resistance level to watch is 6014 which has been prior support (see hourly chart) and the market was just shy of it this morning, so may trade any re-test.

H026. FTSE FRI 08012015 AM

Thursday 7th January 2016 – Afternoon

The FTSE was stuck in a narrow range for the rest of the morning session and only broke out to the upside as the US markets opened. I managed to get in a couple of shorts, the first was trading a pullback to the moving average which went against me initially and I closed out relatively quickly thinking the market would rally back up. The second was off a weak MACD divergence pattern, which I should have closed out sooner; instead I held on too long expecting the 20EMA to offer further resistance and unfortunately it didn’t.

H025. FTSE THU 07012015 PM